2002/10 | LEM Working Paper Series | |
A Simple Micro-Model of Market Dynamics. Part I: The "Large Market" Deterministic Limit |
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Giulio Bottazzi
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Abstract | ||
We present a simple agent based model aimed at the qualitative
description of trading activity in a ``stylized'' financial market.
A two assets economy is considered, with a bond providing a riskless
constant return and a risky stock, paying constant dividends, whose
price is fixed via Walrasian auction. The market participants are
speculators described as myopic utility maximizers provided with
limited forecasting ability. If one varies the parameters describing
the market and the agents behavior, the model presents many
distinct ``phases''. In particular, the no-arbitrage
``fundamental'' price can emerge as a stable fixed point, while for
different parameterizations the market shows chaotic dynamics with
speculative bubbles and crashes.
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