2005/06 | LEM Working Paper Series | |
Price and Wealth Dynamics in a Speculative Market with an Arbitrary Number of Generic Technical Traders |
||
Mikhail Anufriev, Giulio Bottazzi |
||
Keywords | ||
Asset Pricing Model, CRRA Framework, Equilibria Market Line, Market
Selection Principle
|
||
JEL Classifications | ||
G12, D83.
|
||
Abstract | ||
We consider a simple pure exchange economy with two assets, one riskless, yielding
a constant return, and one risky, paying a stochastic dividend, and we assume trading
to take place in discrete time inside an endogenous price formation setting. Traders
demand for the risky asset is expressed as a fraction of their individual wealth and is
based on future prices forecast obtained on the basis of past market history.
The general case is studied in which an arbitrary large number of heterogeneous
traders operates in the market and any smooth function which maps the infinite information
set to the present investment choice is allowed as agent's trading behavior. A
complete characterization of equilibria is given and their stability conditions are derived.
We find that this economy can only possess isolated generic equilibria where a single
agent dominates the market and continuous manifolds of non-generic equilibria where
many agents hold finite wealth shares. We show that irrespectively of agents number
and of their behavior, all possible equilibria belong to a one dimensional "Equilibria
Market Line". Finally we discuss the relative performances of different strategies and
the selection principle governing market dynamics.
|
||
Downloads | ||
|
||
Back |